An Israel Democracy Institute expert warns that MK Boaz Bismuth’s haredi draft offers no real enforcement and will not improve enlistment rates.

Nothing will change from MK Boaz Bismuth’s (Likud) bill to enforce haredi (ultra-Orthodox) conscription to the IDF, which is currently being advanced merely for the government, “to stall for time,” Shlomit Ravitsky Tur-Paz of the Israel Democracy Institute told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.

“The numbers are not going up, they’re actually going down,” Tur-Paz said, regarding Bismuth’s outline of the draft bill he led, which was released on Thursday to the public.

As the Knesset prepares for a long-anticipated marathon of Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee (FADC) meetings on Monday to advance the bill, Tur-Paz spoke to the Post about the key issues in the updated outline.

Progress on the bill had been previously halted due to the lack of a “green light” from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the haredi parties in the Knesset.

The two haredi parties had left the government in July in the fallout of negotiations over the bill, which was previously led by former FADC chairperson MK Yuli Edelstein (Likud).

Edelstien was ousted from his role as head of the committee after the ultra-Orthodox parties left the government, allowing for Bismuth to lead the new developments on the bill, making a new outline with significant changes to Edelstien’s version.

Tur-Paz explained that the main flaw in the current outline was that it failed to create genuine incentives to enforce haredi conscription.

“The only sanctions that are going to happen immediately are weak sanctions that apply until the age of 23,” she said.

Draft evaders will be unable to leave Israel until the age of 23

She also noted that the two main sanctions until age 23 are that draft evaders will be unable to leave the country or have access to a driver’s license. Nevertheless, she said that such sanctions were unlikely to change behavior and aren’t nearly stringent enough.

Although there are stronger sanctions that later take effect, which restrict the ability to purchase homes, that is not effective enough either, as haredim can simply “wait until the age of 26,” the year that the sanctions expire for all draft dodgers in Bismuth’s outline, Tur-Paz said.

A central component of the outline is the definition of the “first draft year.” Under the proposal, the first enlistment period begins once the law takes effect and continues until June 30, 2027.

This timeline could significantly delay enforcement of haredi conscription, Tur-Paz warned.

“Because it’s [haredi enlistment] supposed to begin now, and it’s going to be checked only at the end of the 2026 draft year, which ends at the end of June, it is only then that we will see how many young haredim enlisted. Only then will they apply sanctions. Only after that, when we get to the numbers.”

She described the outline as a way for the government to “buy time” and drag out the process of coming up with legislation.

She noted that ultra-Orthodox news outlets have expressed support for the bill, which indicates that the enforcement of haredi conscription is not nearly strict enough.

Another fundamental issue in the bill’s outline is the way it states who is included in the definition of being haredi, Tur-Paz explained.

According to the bill’s outline, anyone who studied in a haredi institution from the ages of 14-18 may fall under the category of haredi, even if they later left the community.

This inflated categorization, she said, results in low actual enlistment numbers being masked by broader definitions.

Another issue with the bill is that national service can count as 10% of the haredi enlistment quota, reducing the number of the IDF’s needed combat soldiers even further, Tur-Paz explained.

MK Dan Illouz (Likud) echoed some of Tur-Paz’s concerns with the bill, presenting a 10-point plan on Sunday to strengthen the bill and ensure genuine enforcement of haredi conscription to the IDF.

Bismuth’s proposal is expected to face significant political hurdles both in committee discussions and in the Knesset plenum, as multiple coalition members have said that they will not support the bill. Others aganist the bill are Edelstein and Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel.

Meanwhile, Channel 12 reported that Likud had approached the Arab party Ra’am to assist in the upcoming votes in favor of the bill in the Knesset’s plenum. On Sunday, Likud rejected the report entirely, calling it “completely fake news.”

“This is yet another baseless fabrication, part of the campaign being waged against the new conscription law,” the party said.

Likud doubled down on its support for the bill, calling it historic and asserting it would “for the first time since the establishment of the state, lead to the enlistment of approximately 23,000 haredim, [enlisted] over three and a half years.”

Tur-Paz emphasized the urgency of the manpower crisis in the IDF.

“There’s a huge lack of men,” she said, noting that the army is in “immediate need of 12,000 recruits.”

Earlier this month, the High Court ruled that the state cannot simultaneously avoid drafting tens of thousands of yeshiva students and continue funding their institutions. It ordered the government to craft a genuine enforcement plan within 45 days.

Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara this week told Netanyahu that the ruling required an immediate halt to benefits for non-serving students and urged him to form an inter-ministerial team to design a credible sanctions structure.

Sarah Ben-Nun contributed to this report.